Russia’s oil exports have found a vital lifeline in India since Europe’s import ban, but storm clouds are gathering to threaten this crucial energy link.
Fresh US sanctions on Moscow for the Ukraine invasion and the death of activist Navalny have New Delhi worried. They directly target tanker group Sovcomflot, which ships a large share of Russia’s crude, throwing supply chains into disarray.
“The latest sanctions will create challenges in getting vessels for Russian oil,” an Indian Oil official revealed, predicting cost and availability pressures. With global freight rates poised to climb, discounts Russia offers may also narrow.
Through long-term contracts and spot purchases, India imported a record 1.66 million barrels of Russian oil daily last year. State refiners like IOC and BPCL negotiate 2023-24 annual deals for up to 400,000 bpd more.
But a Rosneft offer of just $3 per barrel off global benchmarks leaves partners cold. “Refiners consider the proposed discount to be thin given the uncertainties from sanctions,” a source said. Payment solutions remain equally opaque.
Unless substantially sweeter terms emerge, Russian oil flows now vital to India’s energy security may be rationed by market forces instead.
With close strategic ties between New Delhi and Moscow, diplomatic levers will undoubtedly be pulled to shore up supply assurances,. But new US sanctions have inserted stubborn new risks.
For now, India’s Russian crude lifeboat floats on, but gathering storms on the horizon may yet capsize this critical energy artery. Indian refiners are battening down the hatches, bracing for choppy waters ahead.
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