The two by-elections to the assembly constituencies in West Bengal that are due to take place are certain to be a touchstone for the temperature of politics under the regime of the chief minister, Ms. Mamata Banerjee, following the state-wide massive protests over the tragic rape and murder of a Kolkata doctor. Though the protests were apolitical in character, backed by the urban middle class, they shook up the state and received conspicuous support from the opposition parties.
By-elections would occur in six constituencies across the state, and their topographic and demographic attributes will serve as the precursor for changing fortunes. These include the urban middle-class constituency of Naihati close to Kolkata, Haroa with a sizeable minority population, the tribal stronghold of Taldangra, Sitai with its sprinkling of minority and Rajbanshi votes, the northern Bengal tea garden constituency along with Madarihat, and Medinipur.
Political analysts say the outcome may now signal whether the protests on RG Kar will make any difference in the subsequent elections. The opposition BJP, which has been trying to dislodge Mamata Banerjee from power for several years, is hoping for an upset.
Of the six seats, the Trinamool Congress held five and one by the BJP. Trinamool has claimed it will win all six, but less than five would be a loss. The BJP will see a win in Madarihat as a booster, given the loss of seats during this year’s Lok Sabha elections.
Senior Trinamool leader Kunal Ghosh was confident of his party’s position and said the Opposition would try to mislead voters over the RG Kar issue. “People know what the CPIM regime was and how things are in BJP-ruled states. They also know that within 24 hours, Kolkata Police arrested the prime accused in the case,” he said.
Sitai, considered a part of the BJP stronghold of North Bengal, is close to the Bangladesh border. At the same time, Madarihat is essentially a tea garden constituency and is the only seat amongst the six that the BJP had previously secured. Trinamool had gained ground in North Bengal during the Lok Sabha elections.
For the first time, without an alliance with Congress as in the previous elections, it’s fighting this election alone. “While ten seats were scheduled for by-elections, four have taken place, so now there are six. There had to be frugal discussions because the time was too and the party’s state leadership changed in the past two weeks, pushing several issues behind the back burner,” said senior CPM leader Md Salim.
