The Biden administration is weighing the imposition of new, even more severe sanctions against Russia’s very lucrative oil trade in order to apply added pressure to the Kremlin with Donald Trump set to return to the White House. Though still partial in nature, specifics of these moves remain under seal, but it is learned that restrictions regarding certain Russian oil exports are considered.
But previously, President Biden resisted such sanctions over fears that would cause energy prices to skyrocket. With oil prices starting to drop amid predictions of a global surplus for 2025, amid rising fears that Trump could quickly try to force an agreement to end the conflict in Ukraine, the administration is warmer to more aggressive measures now.
Those discussions reveal a new willingness to take risks in standing up to Russia, particularly as Biden’s term winds down. The efforts to choke the Kremlin’s energy revenues have had mixed success so far, but the average price for gasoline in the United States has fallen to its lowest since mid-2021. Military and financial aid for Ukraine has also been increased, as well, amid uncertainty about whether Trump would continue U.S. support.
For now, the U.S. has banned imports of Russian oil, but new export restrictions could break more than two years of policy set after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The administration is also considering fresh sanctions on the tanker fleet that Russia uses to export its oil; announcements could come in the coming weeks.
The European Union is reportedly preparing the same kind of measures against Russia’s shadow fleet. The impact may send oil prices soaring and squeeze the global economy. In a softer oil market, Biden’s administration attempts to turn that to its advantage as it works to stiffen Ukraine’s negotiating position ahead of Trump’s inauguration.
