For years, officials in Iran have worked toward establishing an “axis of resistance,” an alliance of similarly ideological-minded factions that work toward blocking Israel and the United States around the region. These allies include armed groups, governmental elements from Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and other Palestinian groups.
The recent fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria raised a number of questions concerning the stability of this axis, as Tehran lost a significant ally and crucial lifelines which supported its strategic interests. Despite several claims of the collapse of the axis, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei recently described such views as “ignorant,” indicating that the spirit of resistance is very much alive.
Khamenei underlined that the axis is the whole region; it means, in some way, it is rooted in faith and commitment more than in military capabilities. One aim for Tehran is to get the United States out from the region, from Iraq, as a form of revenge for the killing of General Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s most important general and one of the main founders of this resistance network.
Backed since the early 1980s by Iran, Hezbollah has become a powerful political force in Lebanon with a military stronger than that of the Lebanese army. The organization has suffered substantial blows from Israel, with the loss of its longstanding leader Hassan Nasrallah and several of its most important commanders.
In spite of all these setbacks, Tehran insists that “Hezbollah is alive,” and Khamenei has said that resistance by Lebanese and Palestinian forces against them means defeat for the Israelis. Analysts suggest that Iran’s loss of influence in Syria will, over the short term, weaken its regional power dynamics. Ali Akbar Dareini, a researcher based in Tehran, pointed out that the cutting of ground links with Lebanon reduces Iran’s scope to extend support to Hezbollah. The fall of the Assad regime creates a major hindrance to the rebuilding and re-equipping of its resistance network.
The shift in dynamics has been an emboldening factor for Israel as well, which has scaled up its military presence within Syria, capturing strategic territories and carrying out hundreds of airstrikes. Recently, in a speech, Khamenei warned that any attempts by Israel to encircle Hezbollah will backfire, emphasizing that it is Israel that shall be defeated.
Iran has expressed a wish to continue relations with the new Syrian administration, though the latter has shown a wariness towards further conflict with Israel. Hossein Salami, commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, declared that the presence of Israeli forces near Damascus was intolerable but vowed that they would ultimately meet their downfall.
But it is not alone there: in Yemen, various attacks launched in recent weeks against the Houthi infrastructure also brought several dozens of dead and wounded along with dramatic damage. Reports have asserted that Israel’s intelligence would like to implement an eventual plan for the elimination of the political leadership of Houthi.
The rebels shot back rockets at Israeli army positions; some fell upon inhabited zones, provoking injuries. The US has pressured the Iraqi government to dismantle Iran-aligned armed groups, threatening military action if necessary. Many are now integrated into Iraq’s official security forces, further complicating the situation.
Experts say the axis can no longer function as a cohesive network. According to Vali Nasr, a professor of international affairs, it lost its foundational ties in the Levant, limiting its strategic role in the region. This alliance would have to make changes if it were ever going to be relevant within the changing geopolitical landscape.
The axis has been helpful for Iran in its quest to be a regional power but has suffered major setbacks in recent times, especially after the Syrian civil war. Hamidreza Azizi, a scholar with the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said that with both the geographical and operational bases of the axis having been almost completely destroyed, the resistance spirit remains alive. One could call this “axis-less resistance,” where Iran seeks to consolidate its positions in Iraq and Yemen and other forces act with more limited coordination and capability.
