Myanmar is increasingly the focal point for China’s strategic ambitions, positioning itself as a very key supporter of the military junta that came into power after the coup d’état in February 2011. Since the coup that overthrew the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi, the nation has been enveloped in an extremely bloody civil war, while pro-democracy protests exploded into fierce fighting between the regime and opposition forces. Of late, the opposition has gathered steam, and the junta is on the back foot.
Although most of the international community-including the United States and other Western countries-voices calls for the restoration of democracy, China has allied itself with the junta. Recently, China supported the military’s proposed elections to be held later this year, despite prevailing conditions that militate against any democratic expression.
The case of Myanmar is inherently complex, as any election would have been largely symbolic given that opposition parties were banned and the civil war was already underway. The full-scale civil war made the possibility of any true electoral process very low.
Neighboring countries of ASEAN have been asking the junta to postpone the elections until hostilities cease. Malaysia’s Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan reaffirmed that a stop to fighting and unrestricted humanitarian access had to come ahead of any form of democratic exercise. “Malaysia wants to know what Myanmar has in mind. We told them the election is not a priority. The priority now is to cease fire,” he said, reflecting ASEAN’s collective sentiment.
Despite such calls for restraint, China continues to solidarize with the junta’s electoral calendar. In November 2024, Myanmar’s military chief, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang, who reaffirmed China’s support for the junta’s electoral schedule. Hlaing provided this during the meeting, although opposition groups should present solid and concrete steps toward peace, yet the military has effectively barred meaningful opposition.
Recent developments in the civil war have seen the coalition of opposition groups comprising the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, Arakan Army, and Ta’ang National Liberation Army register landmark victories, wresting from the junta control of strategic border areas. The ongoing conflict has left Myanmar in a current state of turmoil, its future hanging in the balance, amid external influences and internal strife.
