US-China unofficial nuclear talks see assurances from Beijing on Taiwan.
In the first non-governmental nuclear arms discussions between the US and China since 2017, Beijing provided assurances on Taiwan.
Held in Shanghai last month, the semi-official talks organized by scholar David Santoro saw former officials and analysts from both sides participate.
The American delegates raised concerns over China’s references to potential atomic use if it faces defeat in a Taiwan conflict. However, Chinese representatives stated they are convinced of prevailing conventionally, without nuclear weapons.
They reiterated adherence to no-first-use and minimum deterrence policies. China maintains these stances to this day and is not competing for parity or superiority, according to the descriptions provided.
Ongoing security tensions and a lack of formal engagements since late 2021 have stalled bilateral communications on the sensitive issue. Experts call such unofficial exchanges important under fraught geopolitical circumstances.
While China did not comment on expanding arsenals estimated to cross 1,000 warheads by 2030, discussions covered perceived risks to its weapons and modernization motivations.
Analysts note the build-up exceeds minimum deterrence needs. Continued talks were planned for 2025 to foster understanding amid growing concerns over China’s nuclear ambiguity and security dynamics in the Indo-Pacific.
The exchanges offer insight into the perspectives of both nuclear powers at a time when transparency is lacking between their governments. Further constructive bilateral or multi-lateral arms control initiatives could help build trust.
