As the world holds its breath to see what happens next after the US launched direct attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites, US President Donald Trump is expected in the Netherlands on Tuesday for a Nato summit.
This will be Trump’s inaugural Nato summit following his re-election. Previously, he’s vented rage against alliance members taking advantage of US defence promises. European allies are eager to disprove him. They want to convince him not to withdraw troops or US capacity from the continent.
“Relations with Europe have been so tense since Trump returned to the White House over trade tariffs and more-that a few weeks ago, we weren’t even sure he’d turn up to this summit,” one high-level level who spoke on condition of anonymity told me.
“With Russia and China watching for Western weakness, that would have been a disaster. But Moscow and Beijing may yet be able to bring out the popcorn. NATO’s Secretary General Mark Rutte designed this summit around Trump. He aimed to flatter him by agreeing massive hikes in defence spending, to show that Europeans would now take more responsibility for their security.
Rutte also hoped that by keeping the meeting strictly on money, he’d steer clear of any possible confrontation or explosion between Trump and his friends. That well-laid plan may be unravelling.
With Iran having fired missiles at US bases in Qatar and Iraq to retaliate against Saturday’s attack on its nuclear facilities, the US commander-in-chief might opt to stay in the Situation Room in Washington.
If he does arrive in Europe, as is predicted, how will it be avoided not discussing the Middle East given what is at stake? That would pose the risk of a diplomatic falling-out between the US President and European allies, who stood up for diplomacy against bombing when it came to Iran.
Trump craves a win and he’s extremely thin-skinned. He won’t want to feel any disapproval during the Nato gathering. Concurrently, he’d been promised a publicity-stopping success at the summit, with European nations pledging to spend an unprecedented 5% of GDP on defence – precisely what he’d insisted on in his early days back in the White House.
“This summit is about credibility,” is how the US envoy to Nato, Matthew Whitaker, characterises it. But Spain claimed on Sunday that it had secured an opt-out from the new spending plan – something Rutte later denied. Other allies in Europe that are struggling to find the extra cash are bristling too.
The bottom line is: that Europe must keep large military and nuclear capabilities US side. That’s how Rutte was able to round up reluctant leaders – apart from Spain – to sign up to the new big spend splurge. It’s a huge commitment.
But as the veteran US diplomat, Julianne Smith, who was the former US ambassador to Nato, explained to me – even then there are absolutely no guarantees with Trump. It is not yet clear if the US would agree to a summit declaration this week to state that Russia represents the primary threat to the Nato alliance.
The Trumpian approach to Moscow and heavy-handed pressure on Kyiv in his efforts to bring the war in Ukraine to an end has shaken Europe’s trust in the US as its ultimate protector.
Moreover, on Friday evening, one could practically hear European officials gritting their teeth, following Trump casually rationalising the humongous 5% defence expenditure goal he has insisted on from allies while relieving himself and the US of the pledge.
“I don’t think we should, but I think they should,” he said. “We’ve been defending Nato so long… So I don’t think we should, but I think that the Nato countries should. On the other hand, though, Europe’s leaders would arguably by now have been better equipped to defend themselves.
He is the bluntest and most erratic, yet far from the first US president to desire to shift military focus and investment away from Europe to other regions of priority, specifically the Indo-Pacific. President Obama made that clear enough way back in 2011.
