Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition government appears to be in danger, as a new poll shows a radical shift in voter sentiment if elections were being held today, particularly with the addition of former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett to the mix. The surprise, reported by the Times of Israel and conducted by Channel 12 news poll, presents a challenging climate for the government in power.
The estimated seat allocation in this case shows a close race: Likud and Bennett’s party would each win 24 seats, Yesh Atid 11, The Democrats 10, National Unity 9, Shas and United Torah Judaism 8 each, Yisrael Beytenu 8, Otzma Yehudit 7, and both Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am 5 seats each. This would leave Netanyahu’s pro camp with a mere 48 seats in the 120-member Knesset, down from an initial estimate of 51.
By coincidence, were elections conducted between only those parties represented in the Knesset, Netanyahu’s bloc would also be at a disadvantage, getting 54 only. Likud would lead the way with 25 seats under the poll, closely followed by National Unity’s 16. Both Yesh Atid and The Democrats would get 14 seats, as well as the support of Yisrael Beytenu at 12, followed by 9 for Shas, then Otzma Yehudit and United Torah Judaism sharing 8 each.
While short of a majority, the dependence of the coalition on Hadash-Ta’al, which is outside of both sides, would make Ra’am’s support crucial. Ra’am was a central part of the last coalition that temporarily ousted Netanyahu from power in 2021 and 2022 but has since been outspoken in its condemnation of his government during the ongoing Gaza war.
The poll also sampled head-to-head contests for the premiership and had Bennett winning over Netanyahu on 36% of voters choosing him, as opposed to 34% of Netanyahu. The other potential aspirants, like Opposition Leader Yair Lapid, National Unity leader Benny Gantz, and MK Gadi Eisenkot, received 28%, 26%, and 23%, respectively.
Netanyahu’s popularity as a leader is important, with 60% believing he should resign and just 31% wishing him to remain. Of his own voters, 24% have demanded his resignation, while a staggering 94% of opposition voters agree.
In another big shock, 64% of the respondents believe that Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar must quit, with 75% of coalition voters concurring. This comes after tension over the probe into potential links to Qatar by the Shin Bet and its response to the October 7 terror attack.
In addition, 75% of Israelis agree with a state commission of inquiry into the October 7 attack compared to the 15% who stand behind Netanyahu’s opposition to an investigation. The poll also showed that 42% of Israelis are in support of dismissal of Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, though there are differing views on this.
Conducted by pollster Manu Geva with 500 respondents, the survey is within an error margin of 4.4%, at a pivotal moment for Israeli politics when public discontent is weighing heavily.
