In a significant development, Russia and Ukraine have reached an initial agreement to end military action against ships in the Black Sea and refrain from attacking energy facilities. This followed recent negotiations in Saudi Arabia facilitated by the United States.
The White House confirmed on Tuesday that both Kyiv and Moscow have separately vowed to provide safe passage in the Black Sea, rule out the use of force, and prohibit commercial vessels from being utilized as weapons. Though these agreements are an indication that there could be a shift toward a wider ceasefire during the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, it is uncertain when the partial truce would be carried out.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy indicated the entire agreement was to be effective as of immediately. But Moscow indicated the Black Sea truce would only become effective after some sanctions, particularly those on its state-owned grain bank, are lifted. Russia also claimed the moribund energy attacks have been in effect since last week.
Zelenskyy was optimistic about the agreement, referring to it as “the right steps.” He stated that Ukrainian and American negotiators had discussed the option of having a third party, possibly from Europe or Turkiye, oversee the ceasefire on the sea, and a Middle Eastern monitor could oversee the energy infrastructure agreement. He also warned that if Russia violated the agreement, Ukraine would seek further help from the U.S.
The Kremlin underscored that the Black Sea cease-fire will not come into effect until sanctions on Rosselkhozbank and other banks are lifted. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov referred to a climate of suspicion in Ukraine and said that guarantees need to be unambiguous if the deal is to succeed.
The negotiations came after U.S. diplomats had separately met the Russian and Ukrainian teams for a few days in Riyadh. On Monday, there was a 12-hour session on the possible resumption of the 2022 Black Sea Grain Initiative, which had initially allowed Ukraine to export millions of tons of grain through its ports. Moscow had paused this agreement in 2023 because of the West’s inability to fulfill commitments on sanctions relief on Russian crop exports.
The U.S. committed to restoring Russia’s access to world markets for farm exports, reducing marine insurance rates and easier access to ports and payment systems for such trade.
Even subsequent to the agreements, there remains doubt regarding the ceasefire terms. The U.S. had initially proposed a broader 30-day ceasefire, but subsequent messages have left doubt about the specifics. Ukraine has accused Russia of violating the moratorium with continued strikes on energy and civilian infrastructure, including a recent hospital bombing in northeastern Sumy.
The Kremlin has insisted it is honoring President Putin’s commitments as fighting continues. Russian Defense Ministry updates in recent weeks have demonstrated that Ukraine assaulted oil and gas facilities in a series of provinces.
Tuesday’s agreement has narrower scope than initially proposed broad ceasefire, raising the question of just how strictly such conditions will in the future be enforced.
