Debate mounts over what Russia does – or should do – in Syria with analysts saying the loss of influence would not hit materially vital interests of Moscow, while its urge to preserve strategic influence in the Mediterranean and Africa is well understood.
In the Syrian conflict, Russia was Bashar al-Assad’s key military and diplomatic supporter, building up a major airbase at Khmeimim and an expanded naval base at Tartous, Russia’s only warm-water port. With Syria now in the hands of HTS, these bases’ future is in doubt and there have been reports of Russian troop withdrawals.
Losing these bases, which are critical links in the network of Russian influence, could be damaging and might push Moscow to consider alternatives. Libya would be a practical option given the presence Russia already has there. The consequences of increased military numbers in Libya, especially around NATO’s southern flank, are less clear.
Since 2017 or so, Kremlin planners have tried to leverage Russia’s positions in Syria and Libya to expand its influence in Africa, which they increasingly view as a key domain of great power competition. The Kremlin-controlled military contractor known as the Africa Corps supports the governments in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger that have become estranged from the West.
But even as Libya offers unique advantages for projecting power into Europe, the internal power struggle is a complication. Put simply, rival governments vie for influence, complicating any possible Russian military establishment in a very big way. “This consolidation of Russian influence in eastern Libya empowers Khalifa Haftar, undercuts UN-led efforts to stabilize the country, and might increase conflict,” analysts added. The regional stability implications are immense, as that landscape continues to evolve.
