Taiwan walks carefully as Trump’s changing world priorities create abandonment fears while providing strategic opportunities. Europe, once regarded as a strong and cohesive force, struggled to resist President Donald Trump’s aggressive position on Ukraine. At the same time, he moved toward a stunning pro-Russia realignment, Taiwan was seized by fear and doubt.
With China looming large as a constant threat, the island self-governed was confronted with the frightening possibility of being left exposed to Beijing’s desires.
In contrast to Ukraine, which had Europe as a partial buffer—albeit not entirely successful against Trump’s hardline stance—Taiwan did not have such regional protection. Taipei had for years equated its situation with that of Ukraine, hoping that the fate of Kyiv might portend its own. Now, it could only hope to be mistaken.
Russell Hsiao, executive director of the Washington-based Global Taiwan Institute, said in an interview with The New York Times that Taiwan had spent the past three years stressing how the fate of democracies was intricately linked and that what happens in Ukraine would have significant implications for Taiwan.
The Associated Press said that just as Moscow asserted that Ukraine belongs to Russia by right, China maintains that Taiwan is theirs. President Xi Jinping did not rule out the option of taking it by force. The news agency quoted Daniel Russel, who was a top official in the National Security Council and State Department during the Obama administration, to say that the policy change would strengthen China’s campaign of presenting American backing as untrustworthy.
According to him, Beijing’s game plan against Taiwan is to try to convince the island that US support cannot be relied upon and that Chinese rule is inevitable. Russel says Trump’s indications of Taiwan wavering support have already fueled this storyline.
Trump went on Friday to walk back his previous comments, during which he had inappropriately blamed Ukraine for initiating the war. Nevertheless, Hsiao says that the abrupt reversal in US policy in the war may cause some people in Taiwan to question if the US might likewise pull back support for them.
A DW report noted that the slogan “Today Ukraine, Tomorrow Taiwan” has become prevalent on Taiwanese social media as a reflection of concerns that Taiwan might be the next target of aggression. Western leaders have also made parallels between the two conflicts presenting both Ukraine and Taiwan as central battlegrounds in an international confrontation with expansionist authoritarianism.
Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte cautioned in December that if Russia were to win in Ukraine, it could embolden China to progressively claim more authority over Taiwan.
