A senior official of the Iraqi government, who did not wish to be named, stated the possibility for the US and Iraq to reach an agreement for the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq might not come before midterm elections in the US in November. These tripartite talks kicked off last month with the main goal of revamping the coalition, which emerged to respond to the extraordinary prevalence of the Iranian/Iraqi Islamic State.
The decision to start dialogue was due to the latest Deterioration in relations between the US forces and the Shi’ite armed militia, which was made worse by a regional dispute linked to the Gaza war. While the warring sides have relaxed for over a month by halting the fights and allowing negotiations to take place, it is still delicate and needs attention.
The Government in Baghdad, with backing from the Shi’ite Muslim parties and armed groups, has been making intense efforts to ensure that the following country is not returned to the arena of the rival nations. It’s a balancing act as Democrats and Republicans are going in very different directions in their plans on how they think the USA should relate with Iraq militarily.
The Iraqi Shiite militias have especially portrayed themselves as ardent proponents of a straight and intentional pull out of the US forces from their country, the concerns of sovereignty and national security being the reasons behind that. However, the stronger-too-strong Shi’ite subgroups, in addition to Sunnis and Kurds, are concerned about the possible quagmire for stability in case of the U.S. absence.
Although the U.S. declares its readiness for reevaluation of the coalition’s role after the Islamic State is no more in 2017, and even though it sees no similarity between the current discussions and the overall draw of all the military advisers, it still declares its readiness for such developments. It is no longer only as a pretext for a possible third World War that the talks are seen, but as an expose of shifting military power between the countries.
It is worth noting that the United States initially invaded Iraq in 2003, toppling President Saddam Hussein, and subsequently withdrew in 2011. However, the deteriorating security situation prompted their return in 2014, leading an international coalition in the fight against ISIS. Presently, there are approximately 2,500 American troops in Iraq and 900 in Syria, engaged primarily in advisory and assistance roles.
Former Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, known for his moderate stance within Iraq’s ruling Shi’ite Coordination Framework, recently shared insights regarding the negotiations. He suggested that the United States does not seek a complete withdrawal, as it is clear that their continued presence holds strategic importance. Nonetheless, there is a growing sentiment among certain segments of Iraqi society that the current American presence poses more challenges than solutions.
As the talks on the U.S.-led military coalition in Iraq unfold, the focus now shifts to the upcoming U.S. presidential elections, which may influence the trajectory of the negotiations.
